Organized Chaos

I can’t do my look at the Atlantic Coast Conference without first tackling the Florida State Seminoles.

Oh, the Seminoles. The team that long ago was the standard-bearer in the NCAA. Now they are a team basking in the muck of back-to-back 7-6 seasons.

But don’t despair, FSU faithful.

The Seminoles will have an improved offense behind an inexperienced but talented offensive line. The defense will again be strong.

The key is moving past the first three weeks, which will see several players suspended due to the academic cheating scandal that was uncovered late last year.

FSU has been fairly tight-lipped on which players will be out, but it will be obvious who’s gone once the lineups for the opener against Western Carolina released. The word is as many as six starters on defense might be out.

This won’t matter in the first two weeks, which see the Seminoles play teams no better than any area high school. I’d be shocked to see an upset, but then again you never really know.

The conventional wisdom is FSU will have a better season this year. Most feel the last two 7-6 seasons will be a thing of the past, but it won’t be easy.

FSU was not picked to win the ACC for the first time in a million years and for good reason. The Seminoles were once the expected favorite and now are anything but.

That bodes well for FSU, which can use this new “underdog” role to sneak up on other teams. The fact FSU can sneak up on someone is odd to write, but it’s true.

Before I get to the predictions, here’s a few thoughts on what you might see:

1) Bert Reed, the former Bay quarterback, will earn a chance to shine in the first three weeks. He will do so, but he won’t be an impact player right away. We’ll have to see if his small frame can indeed stand up to the big boys in college.

2) This will be one of the best offensive lines at FSU in a long time. If injuries are plenty then Drew Weatherford better be prepared to scramble on every down like he has the past two seasons.

3) Speaking of Weatherford, I think he’s a decent quarterback. I don’t think he’s received the respect he deserves, as the FSU coaching staff constantly pits players against him to “fight” for his job. Xavier Lee, who turned out to be a headcase, is gone so why on Earth are we having a debate between Weatherford and Christian Ponder for the job? Weatherford will be alright if he’s given the chance to loosen up, but that doesn’t seem like it will be the case (read my story to find out more on that).

4) The offensive line will be better but something inside me says Antone Smith will have an average year. There has been a long list of recent running backs who have talked a big game but fallen flat. Sure, they have been mildly successful, but none were standouts. Look at Leon Washington and Lorenzo Booker for that proof.

5) In order for FSU to be successful the home crowd better get off its hands. Doak Campbell Stadium is a lot quieter than The Swamp. It may be hard for people to believe that but it’s true. Enough with the fair weather mentality.

6) Bobby Bowden - I’ll leave this last item to watch until after these notes:

Here’s how the FSU season will play out, with their record as I go along in ().

Weeks 1 and 2, easy wins over Western Carolina and UT-Chattanooga. However, it will be sort of close for about a quarter. If these games are closer for longer, even stretching into the second half then there are major worries. (2-0)

Week 3 is the trap game at home against Wake Forest. FSU owned this series for a while but Wake Forest, a vastly under appreciated team, has won the last two meetings. The Deacons win this one, the last with the mass suspensions (2-1).

Week 4 vs. Colorado in Jacksonville could be scary like last year’s game. But that was because it was on the road. FSU wins going away (3-1).

Week 5 and 6 are the first road games of the season and they are tricky. The first is at Miami, which also is flying under the radar. The second is at North Carolina State, which also has played FSU tough recently. I’ll say a split happens here, with the loss coming at NC State (4-2).

Week 7 is a loss at home against Virginia Tech, which leads to a lackluster performance in Week 8 at Georgia Tech, which will give FSU fits with that new offense. The Seminoles hold on for a win at Georgia Tech, however (5-3).

Week 9 sees Clemson come to town. I think this will be a big win for Clemson (5-4).

My intitial feelings a few weeks ago pointed to a Boston College upset over FSU at home in Week 10. I don’t see that happening now (6-4).

Ahh, Week 11. A trip to Maryland, which has gone the way of the Terps the past two times. It’s a toss-up, but if I truly believe FSU will be better, which I do, I give the Seminoles the nod (7-4).

The last week of the regular season features a visit from Florida. The Gators win this one (7-5).

So this leaves FSU right about where they have been the last two years. A loss in a bowl game would be devastating, but the problems that have persisted in recent bowl trips, such as the scandal, won’t be around.

I give the Seminoles a bowl win and finish 8-5.

This brings me back to point 6) Bobby Bowden. An 8-5 season, with signs pointing to even better things in 2009 will keep him around, barely. Nine wins would seal a return. Anything else, especially seven wins again would seal his fate.

I’ll have my ACC picks in the coming days.

You can read my overall college and NFL predictions by clicking here.

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